Highlights of the Recent French Elections

The NPF became the largest party in the 577-seat National Assembly with 182 seats, but it was shy of the 289 MPs required for an absolute majority, according to the French Interior Ministry.

Key Results

• The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition won the most seats with 188, but fell short of a majority
• President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance came in second with 161 seats
• The far-right National Rally (RN) party and allies won 142 seats, a significant increase from previous elections
• No single party or coalition secured the 289 seats needed for an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament

What Happens Next?

• Macron will need to appoint a new prime minister, likely from the NFP coalition, which poses challenges given the diverse ideologies within the alliance
• Macron may seek to form a coalition with more moderate parties in the NFP, but major disagreements exist, such as over pension reform
• Another option is a minority centrist government relying on compromise with moderates from left and right
• Invoking Article 49.3 to pass legislation without a vote is unlikely to succeed in the hung parliament
• Macron's power is weakened, leading to speculation he could resign and call a snap presidential election

The outcome of the French election was a divided parliament lacking a clear majority, paving the way for convoluted coalition talks or prolonged legislative deadlock. Despite making considerable progress, the far-right remains temporarily out of power.

• Huge Victory for the Left:

The new Popular Front coalition, consisting of four main parties (France Unbowed, Socialists, Greens, Communists), achieved significant gains, keeping Marine Le Pen's National Rally out of power. Despite their ideological differences, they united to prevent the far right from gaining control.

• Prime Ministerial Candidate Uncertain:

With no clear majority, the president typically appoints a Prime Minister from the largest faction. Currently, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Unbowed is a prominent figure, but his divisive nature may hinder coalition harmony. Other contenders include Marine Tondelier (Greens), Olivier Faure (Socialists), and Fabien Roussel (Communists).

• France Faces a Hung Parliament:

The National Assembly's 577 seats are divided with no group holding a majority: the left-wing coalition has 187 seats, Macron's Ensemble has 159, and the far-right National Rally has 142. This lack of a clear majority could lead to political instability and clashes if a government isn't formed soon.

• Far Right's Unexpected Setback:

Despite winning the first round, the National Rally came third in the second round. Party President Jordan Bardella criticized Macron for creating instability. Although the far right now has 142 seats, a significant increase from 88, they remain out of power but stronger, setting a tone for future elections.

• Macron's Strategic Gamble:

President Macron's decision to dissolve Parliament and call for snap elections was risky. While his party didn't win outright, they secured second place, preventing the far right from gaining control. Macron remains president but faces a politically divided Parliament, which will challenge his ability to govern effectively.